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This topic contains 25 replies, has 10 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Robert Robert 5 months ago.

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  • #62491
    Profile photo of Max Velocity
    Max
    Keymaster

    Hey, I’m currently in Denver on a stopover from Idaho on the way home from the mobile class (updates were on IG if you were paying attention). I’m becoming aware of Hurricane Florence. I am concerned about impacts on the CQBC next weekend.

    My concerns are as follows:

    1) Impact of the storm on the class in Romney and infrastructure surrounding it.

    2) Impact of the storm on homes and families of those, Scott and I included, who live in VA and areas in the closer impact area of the storm.

    I know I have one student who is booked to fly in from CA.

    So I need Intel to make a possible decision to reschedule. I don’t know what or when that would look like, hut any decusion is better earlier if possible.

    I have not been on the forum while in ID so am not up to speed on any recent discussions.

    Max

    #62492
    Profile photo of Max Velocity
    Max
    Keymaster

    Forgetting it is John, not Scott!

    #62493
    Profile photo of Robert
    Robert
    Participant

    Looking to be a possible mess. Last update it looked like it strengthened also. I’m open to reschedule if necessary any weekend except 22nd-23rd Sep and Oct 6th

    www.jrhenterprises.com
    RMP, TC3, NODF, CRCD 6/14, CP 9/14. NODF, Land Nav, 6/15. Rifleman Challenge 9/15- Vanguard. FOFtactics 3/16, 10/16, 11/16, 6/17,11/17 CTT, 6/15, 11/16, , LRMC-1 9/17 GA Mobile CTT and DA 10/16, GA mobile DCH 3/18, HEAT1 3/18 Alum weekend 8/18, Opfor CLC 10/18, DA 11/18 CQBC 12/18

    #62494
    Profile photo of Max Velocity
    Max
    Keymaster

    Just to be clear, I don’t want to reschedule and I hope not too. This is certainly not a discussion of reschedule dates. It looks like rain at this time, from what I have got so far.

    #62495
    Profile photo of Mike Q
    Mike Q
    Participant

    So far Leesburg is only calling for rain, 10% chance of high winds. But it’s early yet. Expected to be a CAT 4 when it hits around Hatteras in N.C. on Thursday morning.

    There never seems to be enough time to do it right, but there is always enough time to do it twice.

    CRM Sept. 2014, CTT 1505, CTT July 2015, RC-Rifleman 1502, CP Nov. 2015, FoF March 2016, CCW May 2016, FoF Oct. 2016, FoF Nov. 2016, CLC April 2017, FoF Nov. 2017, Alumni weekend Aug. 2018, CQB Dec. 2018

    #62496
    Profile photo of Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Moderator

    But it’s early yet.

    Realistically 72 hours away is good ballpark, 48 hours pretty accurate.

    Despite the convincing models and weather guesser’s pretending otherwise, it could be Wednesday afternoon before a really firm prediction on how much impact to VTC is possible.

    Anyone flying needs consider their current airport destination and possible alternatives if destination is closed. Flying from CA typically involves at least one layover, I would already have a list of alternatives in mind if destination is lost enroute (probably West and SW of VTC). Check rental car availability for these alternatives.

    Just some thoughts from my experience bouncing around weather when flying commercial.

    Everyone in the current danger area should already be considering preliminary preparations!

    If scheduled for this CQBC what options available for family and home? Maybe a Romney hurrevac?

    #62498
    Profile photo of First Sergeant
    First Sergeant
    Moderator

    Forgetting it is John, not Scott!

    Gee, thanks.

    Don’t worry about me. ;-)

    FILO
    Signal out, can you identify.
    Je ne regrette rien...
    Klagt Nicht, Kämpft

    #62500
    Profile photo of JohnnyMac
    JohnnyMac
    Participant

    I need Intel

    Likely to make landfall and strengthening. Currently a CAT 1, current intel predicts at least CAT 3, likely CAT 4, slight chance of CAT 5, making landfall in the Carolinas Thursday night into Friday. Romney in the 6-8″ rainfall range.

    SC, NC, and VA in state of emergencies.

    #62524
    Profile photo of Max Velocity
    Max
    Keymaster

    Just to let you know that at this time I have no intent cancelling. If weather is more than just rain on Friday we may adjust the curriculum.

    More concerned about my family in Culpeper and I’m discussing possible hotels further west.

    If anyone is not coming, please email me separately.

    We also still have 3 spots, so email me about them also.

    #62525
    Profile photo of Robert
    Robert
    Participant

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/205058_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    This is the NOAA cone track. It will update 2-3 times a day on this site.

    www.jrhenterprises.com
    RMP, TC3, NODF, CRCD 6/14, CP 9/14. NODF, Land Nav, 6/15. Rifleman Challenge 9/15- Vanguard. FOFtactics 3/16, 10/16, 11/16, 6/17,11/17 CTT, 6/15, 11/16, , LRMC-1 9/17 GA Mobile CTT and DA 10/16, GA mobile DCH 3/18, HEAT1 3/18 Alum weekend 8/18, Opfor CLC 10/18, DA 11/18 CQBC 12/18

    #62529
    Profile photo of Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Moderator

    Hotel/motel reservations maybe worth considering now if you think you may need to relocate.

    Hotels fill up fast in these events.

    #62531
    Profile photo of Dark Knight Scott
    Scott G
    Participant

    More concerned about my family in Culpeper and I’m discussing possible hotels further west.

    I am in the Warrenton/Gainesville area and because of my job, cant leave. Wife traveling for work this week. This wasn’t in the plans! Brought in a few extra supplies and will ride it out the best we can!
    SLG

    Northern VA Area

    CRCD #1 Alumnus

    #62535
    Profile photo of SeanT
    SeanT
    Moderator

    Think flooding type issues for VTC or Culpeper. First one up to VTC should probably bring a chainsaw and a tow strap.
    Here in Martinsburg, the Opequon creek is already very high. I use a hay field as a gauge… If I see water as far in the field as I did today already, then I can expect all the low water bridges to be underwater and anyplace that ‘usually’ floods probably will be more flooded than usual.

    #62563
    Profile photo of First Sergeant
    First Sergeant
    Moderator

    Depending on the models, parts of NC and VA could see anywhere from 12″ to 30″ inches of rain in 3 to 4 days. Yesterday they had portions of WV included in that. That is going to cause flooding that hasn’t been seen in years.

    One of the issues is that it may stall shortly after making landfall.

    FILO
    Signal out, can you identify.
    Je ne regrette rien...
    Klagt Nicht, Kämpft

    #62567
    Profile photo of Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Moderator

    One of the issues is that it may stall shortly after making landfall.

    Probably the most dangerous possibility overall.

    Everyone needs to know their vehicle limitations for water crossings, remembering it doesn’t take much of a current to be washed away. Also many vehicles air intakes are too low.

    Unless you know what your doing, don’t!

    #62573
    Profile photo of A_A_Ron2guns
    A_A_Ron2guns
    Participant

    Damn. This is going to suck.

    You are what you do, when it counts. -The Masao

    Not the other Aaron's in this industry!

    #62576
    Profile photo of Robert
    Robert
    Participant

    South and North Carolina and VA folks- any updates you can provide on how bad I-20, I-77 and I-81 is would be much appreciated.

    We may not be able to get up there due to evacuees fleeing.
    1.5 mil already fleeing
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-florence/more-than-1-5-million-ordered-to-evacuate-as-hurricane-florence-threatens-carolinas-idUSKCN1LR0J6

    Having spent six hours on a normal 3 hour trip during Floyd in 99, traffic during these things is a real nightmare. West and North are going to be the main directions of escape- unfortunately that’s the way we need to go Thursday afternoon.

    www.jrhenterprises.com
    RMP, TC3, NODF, CRCD 6/14, CP 9/14. NODF, Land Nav, 6/15. Rifleman Challenge 9/15- Vanguard. FOFtactics 3/16, 10/16, 11/16, 6/17,11/17 CTT, 6/15, 11/16, , LRMC-1 9/17 GA Mobile CTT and DA 10/16, GA mobile DCH 3/18, HEAT1 3/18 Alum weekend 8/18, Opfor CLC 10/18, DA 11/18 CQBC 12/18

    #62578
    Profile photo of Max Velocity
    Max
    Keymaster

    If anyone booked is planning on not coming, let me know. This will be a unique situation, because cancellation is due to a unique reason.

    I will try and be as fair as possible, but I will have issues on my end paying cadre and sitting with a bunch of UTM I have ordered. So my costs will remain.

    With students flying in with all those costs a simple reschedule is also not simple. They would take a big hit.

    Any thoughts?

    #62579
    Profile photo of Robert
    Robert
    Participant

    Our gear has been sitting by the door since Sunday, we are ready to leave out Thursday.

    That being said, having been in a few hurricanes and having been stuck in hurricane evac messes on roads before, I’m not fooling myself on this. If we hit SC or NC midday Thursday and it’s a parking lot, could be late Friday before we even arrive at Romney.

    So worst case you hold the UTM rounds for the student till next class and since this is a unique situation like you stated hold the spot for the next class? I ain’t looking for a refund, doubt others are also, assume most taking this class are some of your regulars- transfer class?

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    www.jrhenterprises.com
    RMP, TC3, NODF, CRCD 6/14, CP 9/14. NODF, Land Nav, 6/15. Rifleman Challenge 9/15- Vanguard. FOFtactics 3/16, 10/16, 11/16, 6/17,11/17 CTT, 6/15, 11/16, , LRMC-1 9/17 GA Mobile CTT and DA 10/16, GA mobile DCH 3/18, HEAT1 3/18 Alum weekend 8/18, Opfor CLC 10/18, DA 11/18 CQBC 12/18

    #62582
    Profile photo of Max Velocity
    Max
    Keymaster

    Yes it makese sense that you have already paid for the UTM. So in this case we can transfer it. Tuition is a shakier issue, with mostly cabin club on this class the only one getting paid to run it is John. Nothing for the house, specially after building mega house.

    #62586
    Profile photo of JohnnyMac
    JohnnyMac
    Participant

    I’m coming from up north. I’m flexible.

    #62587
    Profile photo of Max Velocity
    Max
    Keymaster

    Sent via email to class participants:

    All,

    It seems we have no choice with the hurricane act of god coming in. If you are not on the forum tracking this conversation then I suggest you do so. It has been brought to my attention that travel to the VTC in itself may be difficult due to the evacuation orders and 1.5M people moving from the coast. I also do not want to force people away from homes and family due o the class booking, when you may really need to be at home.

    What we will do is make the decision to reschedule. We will put the class up again on 30 November – 2 December. Given that the class is only at 9, this may also give the opportunity to fill the class.

    I will transfer all your payments and UTM to this new date. If you cannot make this new date, let me know. Please, confirm that you are attending the new date.

    Eric: I sent you an email and left you a voicemail. My hope is that you can reschedule flights. With the hurricane, your flight in or out may end up getting cancelled this weekend anyway.

    Max

    Note: there is a DCH on that weekend. We can make both work.

    #62610
    Profile photo of Roadkill
    Roadkill
    Participant

    Max, if you and the family need to evacuate your welcome in Michigan. It’s a ten hour ride but the weather is great.

    RS/CTT Nov 16
    HEAT1 Aug18

    #62779
    Profile photo of Max Velocity
    Max
    Keymaster

    And…….no hurricane. :unsure:

    I also notice that the weather channel folks are big into panic reporting. I saw a hilarious clip where the reporter could barely stand up and two people walked past easily in the background….

    We made the decision on the information we had….and I guess transit from GA would also have been hard? Due to the panic evacuation.

    Don’t ever trust the MSM! :unsure:

    #62782
    Profile photo of Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Moderator

    We made the decision on the information we had…

    The prediction models are no where near as accurate as they pretend. If it hadn’t slowed down over water it would have been worse overall. Though the slow movement after landfall is bad for locally affected area.

    The relatively warm water generally strengthens a hurricane, however slowing below about 12 mph over continental shelf allows mechanical motion to cool sea surface temps which weakened hurricane.

    You have to prepare because you never truly know!

    It truly sucks and we have through the end of November before it’s over this year.

    #62786
    Profile photo of Robert
    Robert
    Participant

    The travel alone in NC, SC and lower VA might have screwed a bunch of students who would ended up getting there late, etc.

    www.jrhenterprises.com
    RMP, TC3, NODF, CRCD 6/14, CP 9/14. NODF, Land Nav, 6/15. Rifleman Challenge 9/15- Vanguard. FOFtactics 3/16, 10/16, 11/16, 6/17,11/17 CTT, 6/15, 11/16, , LRMC-1 9/17 GA Mobile CTT and DA 10/16, GA mobile DCH 3/18, HEAT1 3/18 Alum weekend 8/18, Opfor CLC 10/18, DA 11/18 CQBC 12/18

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