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Probability of Shtf situation

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This topic contains 31 replies, has 16 voices, and was last updated by Profile photo of Joe (G.W.N.S.) Joe (G.W.N.S.) 3 years, 10 months ago.

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  • #15625
    Profile photo of Gladius
    Gladius
    Participant

    Maybe it’s just me, but for planning purposes I like to estimate percentages when evaluating risk My estimate of a major us wide shtf situation is 5% possibility. It estimate it as most likely financial crisis of at least depression type severity, other possibility is emp or similiar widespread grid failure. Pandemic is a remote 3rd. What do you folks think. :scratch:

    Away from his arms in the open field
    a man should fare not a foot.
    For never he knows when the need for a spear
    shall arise on the distant road.

    #15632
    Profile photo of Pierce, B
    whitebear620
    Participant

    I’m horrible at statistics, literally, I got a C in that class in school :negative:
    But I’d give a high probability to a natural disaster, living in Florida, we’ve been very lucky with not getting too seriously hit.
    I agree with financial crisis, what little I know about our economics tells me that we are only building a house of cards that eventually will be blown away. We’ve just got too much debt and crumbling infrastructure.
    Just more reason to PT and train I guess!

    #15634
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous

    It’s a bit like how long is a piece of string. It means different things to different people, for varying reasons.

    There are plenty of tools around for scenario-planning, foresight analysis, threat, vulnerability, risk and probability assessment which help bring some rigour to what was once the province of reading chicken entrails for omens.

    I strongly recommend, if one has not done so, that you read Strauss and Howe’s “The Fourth Turning”, to get a cyclic view of recent history. They make a compelling, if not repetitious and contentious case.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory

    I think the liklihood of a a US wide SHTF is much higher than 5% – and the US won’t be Robinson Crusoe there.

    I got into this survival stuff almost 20 years ago and after a lot of thought about a range of aspects, the best I can suggest it is more important to expend time and resources on developing the right mindset, skills and gear to be resilient in the face of a broad spectrum of events rather than worry about any specific type of risk.

    Most SHTF events (providing you are not one of the casualties at ground zero) have enough commonality in their effects after a certain point in time.

    #15635
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous

    It depends what time frames we are talking here.

    -the probability of a SHTF by the end of this century in my mind is a near 100%.
    By then, no more oil, natural gas the efficient fossil fuels will be out no matter how many fracking straw fire production jumps we get.
    Other industrially important materials will be much more expensive by then.

    This alone will be enough to crash out living standards but smaller pie now has to be divided amongst a bigger populace so ….

    – Water.. huuuge crash coming, sooner rather than later. Water in combination with fossil fuels is the second thing that makes our food.
    The current drought in Cali (which may partially depopulate the state get ready to welcome LaRaza refugees ;) ) may soon be the new normal in the midwest, the great plains, pretty much all our bread baskets.

    – population: even if the 2 previous pressures were magically nullified this alone is enough to empoerish us especially as it leads to overworking of land to feed the teeming masses which will lead to a crash of food production.
    Even now , and this is before the water crises has taken effect, food production on the planet is stagnant and waning in nearly all food growing regions.

    – State disintegration due to failure of multiculturalism with its pre-programmed conflicts a la Brackens “When the music stops” is the wild card in this. And it as the potential to come much earlier than the previous. Heck just based on the events of the last few months it could be here anytime. Our “progressive” political class stokes it because they think can harness that into political hay.
    They are wrong.

    – State sponsored tyranny: Another wildcard, also quite possible in next decade or so, but may be pre-empted by the other SHTFs, but if they dont show eventually this will.

    – Collapse of the state due to debt overload. Nuff said

    – Pandemic.. one of my favorites. Difficult to predict but a major pandemic is a near certainty as it is favored by high population densities and transport. We never had as much in both as we do today.

    So in summary if you go far enough into the timeline SHTF is a near certainty..

    Its just a matter of when + which one.
    (No Zombies though ;) )

    #15639
    Profile photo of JohnyMac
    JohnyMac
    Member

    Gladius, you bring up an interesting question. Like what MVF wrote:”the probability of a SHTF by the end of this century in my mind is a near 100%.”

    I have been prepping for fun since ’85 when MrsMac and I moved onto our sailboat and planned to cruise. In earnest since 2005 due to the nation and worlds finances. With that all written, I fear most the next couple of years, for several reasons.

    > The tensions in western Europe between NATO & Russia,
    > The caliphate spreading in the middle east,
    > The rise of Fascist leaning parties in Europe reportedly financed in part by Putin,
    > Iran’s rise of power/influence in the middle east,
    > The high value of the US Dollar vs. the Euro (today EU worth $1.09 to the USD). This means less exports from the US to EU which means potential layoffs
    > 49M US Citizens on food stamps. If it wasn’t for food stamps we would see Great Depression type soup lines,
    > Swiss returning to the Swiss Franc, with Greece, Italy and Spain soon to follow with their old currencies…

    I could go on and on and so could you.

    IMO, we could deal with all that is written except I do not have confidence in our leaders. Leaders who could lead and mitigate the inevitable.

    So Gladius, I think it is high that some form of SHTF will happen in the next 24 months in Europe. Maybe 40-50%. IF nothing happens and we elect a true leader; that percentage will decline drastically. When it happens in Europe it will spread across the pond to the States as it did in WWI and WWII.

    If we get through the next 24 months with no SHTF, then it will be time to worry about water, fuel, pandemics, MVF’s rifle jamming for firing steel ammo, etc., you know the usual stuff ;-)

    Freedom Through Self-Reliance
    www.Unchainedpreppers.com/forum

    #15646
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous

    Watch for the economics dimension impacting the social dimension.

    The conflict cycle usually runs currency war then trade war then cold/hot war. We are currently already seeing elements of all three.

    Special bonus points awarded for commodity and resource control/scarcity dimensions.

    The standard default response is internal conflict/coercion and/or external conflict/coercion.

    The MSM runs it’s latest “Unicorns farting rainbow Skittles” story – eg Brangelina’s latest ovary cancer scare. I mean WTF – where’s the public interest imperative in that?

    Meanwhile other stuff keeps happening such as tightening financial cash transaction monitoring and controls. Cui bono? Especially since the majority of terrorism is State-sponsored.

    http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/government-orders-bank-tellers-to-alert-police-about-your-cash-withdrawals-so-they-can-seize-the-funds-investigate_03232015

    http://govtslaves.info/france-bans-use-of-cash-for-more-than-e1000-1060/

    #15647
    Profile photo of DiznNC
    DiznNC
    Participant

    I think MVF is right as well. Not if but when. No house this broken can still stand. It has been artificially propped up for decades with economic manipulations. The question is, when?

    I have been “prepping” since the 80’s. We have learched from one crisis to the next, and somehow kept going. I never thought it would have gotten this bad. And still be “functioning”.

    This is the kind of thing that doesn’t have a straight-line for prediction in my mind. Too many moving parts that can cause so many different outcomes.

    I think it’s better to distill your reactions down to a common core set, for come what may, so you can ride out whatever scenario comes up.

    Have a set point for a probability in your mind, that calls for preps, rather than a point at which the shite actually hits the fan. In my mind, we’re way past the former, and nobody knows the latter.

    CTT 1505, NODF 1505, CP 1503, LN 1, RC II, Rifleman

    #15653
    Profile photo of Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Moderator

    There are many current conditions that could lead to a SHTF event.

    I suspect a Black Swan event will blindside us at some point, hence my recommendation to not get too preoccupied with specifics in preparations.

    Prepare to Live, don’t live to Prepare. :yes:

    #15654
    Profile photo of Arthur Laurent
    M1-Guy
    Participant

    The probability of an event is 100%. We don’t know the when.

    A true SHTF event is sudden and may not be expected at the time. As GWNS points out a “black Swan” type event. Could be natural disaster, man made, financial, ISIS, etc.

    That said there are the events we see unfolding around us. I believe the probability here is 100%. Just the timing is unknown. My own personal belief is a financial collapse. Money is everything, always follow the money. Money, power, greed. This witches brew does it every time when mixed with a healthy dose of hubris.

    IMO we are in the midst of this. It is unfolding slowly, we all see it happening. Deficits, national debt, private debt and the European financial mess. Add a “black swan” event simultaneously, then chaos ensues.

    As said be prepared, be aware and train. And, live your life well, because any and all of these events are beyond our control. We are spectators.

    You are never out of the fight.

    #15656
    Profile photo of Max Velocity
    Max
    Keymaster

    So many variables wrapped up into a seemingly simple question. The economic variables alone are huge. I too believe we are at a 100% failure probability. When? Oh man, I wish I had a crystal ball. I think the 24 month window given earlier is a good place to start. In a 6 month window? Probably 50%. I think the economic pieces are the most fragile with war/emp/natural disaster being more unlikely to cause major chaos. I also agree with the food stamp and welfare programs hiding the true terrible state of affairs. If those programs were to collapse, the riots would be scary. If the economy goes and the food is too expensive for those programs, equally scary. It’s those hordes of “zombies” that I worry about the most.

    #15658
    Profile photo of nonconformist
    nonconformist
    Participant

    Regardless of the probability of SHTF, once I recognized the fragility of our power and food distribution systems as well as human nature in general, I became more active in living out my old Boy Scout motto.
    Although I own my home, I continue to buy fire insurance every year.When I asked myself what was more valuable-my house or the lives of my family, preparation for bad times was an easy decision. The cost is mostly one time purchases versus every year for fire insurance.
    Reading William Forstchen’s One Second After sealed the deal!

    #15662
    Profile photo of JohnyMac
    JohnyMac
    Member

    A couple of further thoughts in no particular order…

    There is a bit of impatience in the prepping community for the SHTF to happen sooner than later. The feeling is the “reset button” needs to be pressed not unlike you have on many of your electronics. Beware of what you wish for. When the SHTF, there will be a civil war and who knows what we will end up with. If my memory serves me right, 5% of the male population between 1860-65 died due or in part due to the conflict. I suspect that number would be quite higher today. Plus it would not be just the male population of lets say 16 or older.

    I tend not to trust the local weatherman as I have been burned to many times. So I listen to the local weatherman + check out the outside temperature + check the barometer; then walk outside and look at the sky. Red sky in the morning sailors take warningRed sky at night sailors delight. Yet I still keep an umbrella in my truck. ;-) Hence why I invest in the 3B’s – Beans, Band-aides and Bullets (Training is in the Bullets section).

    Not to get all religious on you folks however, the question of when Jesus is going to return to this earth and the answer is found in Matthew 24:42-44. In short; who knows BUT be ready as it could happen at any time. So keep your house in order ;-)

    In conclusion: Keep your ear (s) to the railroad tracks, keep your eyes and mind open, like what nonconformist wrote, “invest in insurance” (3B’s), keep your house in order and pray that some miracle will come along to unite us all and a potential American Civil War II does not happen.

    Freedom Through Self-Reliance
    www.Unchainedpreppers.com/forum

    #15664
    Profile photo of Support Side
    ffhounddog
    Participant

    That is why I dislike many prepper communities they all want it to happen. That scares me. I do not want it to happen but I want to be prepared for it if it does.

    What people do not understand a SHTF is loosing a job, being injured and not able to work, or even having your car in the shop for a week.

    To me there are SHTF senarios that are not part of the “prepper” logic that I consider SHTF. WHERE IS THE VANILLA BEAN ICE CREAM!!!!!!!!! :wacko:

    Support Side. Not flattering but better than weak side.

    #15669
    Profile photo of Skittles
    Skittles
    Participant

    So wait a minute…. im a unicorn fart?

    "... rainbow colored unicorn farts."

    #15678
    Profile photo of Free Chicken Dinner
    RRS
    Participant

    Even Karl Denninger of Market Ticker website is a prepper type (to a point). I don’t know the percentages but look at the spots around the world and their various stages of collapse. Even in supposedly first world countries you can go for quite some time without government assistance in disasters, I believe in Japan a decade or so ago there was an earthquake and the first people to offer assistance of some sort was the American embassy staff and that was after quite some time.

    The list of disaster zones on Earth should be pretty long, hell add one today, Yemen.

    Tactical training for Liberty, Fraternity, Excellence

    #15691
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous

    So wait a minute…. im a unicorn fart?

    Sorry Skittles, I wasn’t thinking of you when I wrote that. No offence intended.

    I’m sure you are a much more “fantastic” entity than that! :yes:

    #15695
    Profile photo of JohnyMac
    JohnyMac
    Member

    I hear ya’ ffhounddog concerning the many, not all, of the prepping communities. To your point: because I have auto insurance it does not mean I am looking for a vehicle accident. ;-)

    To a large degree, it is out of our hands. Best to buy the insurance, keep your nose to the prepping grind stone and pray for the best. What will happen will happen – Be ready.

    Freedom Through Self-Reliance
    www.Unchainedpreppers.com/forum

    #15697
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous

    I’ll throw in another 2 cents:

    I believe we will come out better as whole, the earlier the reset happens even if it does kill most of us.

    This realization (that I suspect many share) should not be allowed to goad us into wishful thinking and see behind every twitch in the scenery, the imminent apocalypse (like we have seen some select WRSA, Zerohedge etc contributors do)

    #15699
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous

    It’s more than likely we are already in the SHTF pipeline. Most just don’t recognise it or are not suffering the major effects yet.

    Why not? Because it is being masked by rigged statistics, lies, misinformation, distractions, and biases. In many countries the “lower classes” base standard of living standard is still far above what in previous generations would have caused mass civil unrest and revolution. The welfare and health safety nets, especially in modern “developed” countries, are the buffers.

    As an exercise think back to the period 1910 to 1939 (or 1941 when the USA formally joined WW2) and all the events in between. At what point in time during that period would you say that there was a clear trigger/catalyst for the SHTF?

    It’s always hitting the fan for someone, somewhere. You just don’t acknowledge it until you, or people you know, cop a gobful and eyeful.

    #15702
    Profile photo of Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Moderator

    I believe we will come out better as whole, the earlier the reset happens even if it does kill most of us.

    Sad, but I believe this to be true.

    …see behind every twitch in the scenery, the imminent apocalypse…

    A good recent example of this was the Ebola scare.

    It amazes me that so many Participants (of those web sites) still have any credibility after their fearmongering and obvious ignorance as self proclaimed subject matter experts.

    By their accounts (Nov-Dec 2014) most of us should be dead and the rest under quarantine. :wacko:

    So remember my best advice as a survivalist/prepper/rationalist since wayback when!

    Prepare to Live, don’t live to Prepare.

    #15703
    Profile photo of
    Anonymous

    I believe we will come out better as whole, the earlier the reset happens even if it does kill most of us.

    Sad, but I believe this to be true.

    …see behind every twitch in the scenery, the imminent apocalypse…

    A good recent example of this was the Ebola scare.

    It amazes me that so many Participants (of those web sites) still have any credibility after their fearmongering and obvious ignorance as self proclaimed subject matter experts.

    By their accounts (Nov-Dec 2014) most of us should be dead and the rest under quarantine. :wacko:

    So remember my best advice as a survivalist/prepper/rationalist since wayback when!

    Prepare to Live, don’t live to Prepare.

    The Ebola scare is the example I was thinking of also . As usual during that time MVTNauts could get accurate and nuanced information on here ;-)

    #15704
    Profile photo of Skittles
    Skittles
    Participant

    AFreeman… no offense taken :-) i thought a unicorn fart was pretty fantastic. Magical even.

    I agree with the sooner the better sentiment. Not because i want it but the sooner the better chance we have as a whole. In the words of Hamish from Braveheart…. “Well, we didnt get dressed up for nothing.”

    "... rainbow colored unicorn farts."

    #15710
    Profile photo of Robin
    sbrgirl
    Participant

    Yep, you guys kept me from getting too worked up about Ebola — thank you.

    #15712
    Profile photo of Brian from Georgia
    Brian from Georgia
    Participant

    Back when I started getting into preparedness, I did a risk anaylsis of likely events. It was like a merit criteria analysis. Take an event, give it a probability of occurrence and a weight factor (how bad it would affect your family). Multiply probability by weight and you can rank the events to determine where you need to focus.

    The analysis can vary depending on your circumstances. If you are Type I diabetic who has to refrigerate your insulin, short term power loss from storms is a big deal for you. Better get that generator and store lots of fuel.

    At the time I did the analysis, job loss, disability or accidental death were most likely for me. So the goal was to minimize debt and build up savings and get insurance. Somewhere behind that was severe economic conditions that might require months of food. At the bottom of the list was civil unrest.

    The probability of these events certainly appear to be changing though. Financial collapse or at least a severe economic downturn look more certain, later if not sooner (since China and Russia are positioning to unseat the dollar as the world’s reserve currency).

    A bigger homestead was low on the priority list before, but now it’s starting to look like a better place to sink my “retirement” funds. That and some like-minded neighbors might be the best way to prepare for whatever it is that’s coming.

    3-4 Aug 2013 CRCD, 2-6 Aug 2014 CRCD/Patrol, 30 Sep 2016 Run n Gun, 1-2 Oct 2016 FoF, 3-4 March 2018 DCH alumni
    Team Coyote

    #15713
    Profile photo of Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Moderator

    Some thread drift.

    If you are Type I diabetic who has to refrigerate your insulin, short term power loss from storms is a big deal for you. Better get that generator and store lots of fuel.

    Since you brought this example up, obviously generator and solar are probably the most common thoughts to power refrigeration.

    A superior option in my opinion are Gas Refrigerators and Freezers. They have options for using LP, natural gas, or kerosene. They are expensive, but will out last most other options if refrigeration is a necessity vice a convenience.

    For long term SHTF use, I like the kerosene option as it’s easier to adapt to alternative fuels like waste oils or the many varieties of home brew alcohol.

    I have an old Servel gas refrigerator (similar to below) that is over 60 years old and runs great.

    #15714
    Profile photo of Robert
    Robert
    Participant

    Not anyone who has seriously considered the true implications of a real SHTF type deal ever really “wants” it to happen.

    Blowhards, your typical Walter Mitty fantasy types, people with nothing to lose, etc. are really only the ones that ever “want” something bad to happen. 99% of the time, it’s just people talking $hit.

    99% of the time in those cases it’s the nutless husband getting beat down by his wife that currently has to “hide” his preps from his spouse, etc. that believes that she will finally approve of him and his ideas if something ever does happen. The “I told you so” types that believe they will finally get vindication for their constant Alex Jones ramblings and hiding of three cans of beanie weenies.

    Then their are the types that feel somehow their situation will get BETTER if something happens. This is where you usually hear the “I’m not just gonna survive, I’m gonna THRIVE” bull$hit. Really? No really? Why? Cause you have a little food and a rifle you never train with? Not gonna happen.

    The only ones that will “thrive” afterwards the dregs who WILL be killing, raping and taking.

    Your average prepper has little or no familiarity with violence. Closest thing for most is a “your momma is fat” push fight in elementary skewl. Most are law abiding and that’s good. But the lack of familiarity with violence, with some degree of suffering, etc. will be their demise.

    You should seriously dismiss as smack talk anyone who says they “want” TS to HTF.

    I trained for 5 years with an older SF guy from the Vietnam era. He went numerous places in the world and experienced a lot of things. One time he was talking with us about people’s unrealistic expectations about TSHTF. He said

    “I’ve been there in Africa where they come into a village, kill all the men, rape all the women and kids and then kill them. You have to kill every damn one of them (bad guys) mercilessly.”

    He said it a lot more eloquently than I did just there, but you get the point. And that will happen in Amerika if things totally fall apart also.

    What are you doing to prepare for that?

    www.jrhenterprises.com
    RMP, TC3, NODF, CRCD 6/14, CP 9/14. NODF, Land Nav, 6/15. Rifleman Challenge 9/15- Vanguard. FOFtactics 3/16, 10/16, 11/16, 6/17,11/17 CTT, 6/15, 11/16, , LRMC-1 9/17 GA Mobile CTT and DA 10/16, GA mobile DCH 3/18, HEAT1 3/18 Alum weekend 8/18, Opfor CLC 10/18, DA 11/18 CQBC 12/18

    #15722
    Profile photo of JohnyMac
    JohnyMac
    Member

    True enough Robert…Experience has it’s value especially when it comes to true violence. The question will always be: Will I be able to rise to that challenge? Heck, I wonder how many people will be able to dispatch, then butcher their; chickens, pork, beef, goats, sheep, little fuzzy bunnies, ducks, etc that they grow let alone a human. Only time and circumstances will tell.

    To follow Brian from GA.’s comments: My wife is a Type I diabetic. She has had the disease since she was 13. That would be 50 years now. She is living under no illusions – She will die when the SHTF. Not because the insulin has to be refrigerated (Humalog does not) she will die because there will be none.

    I really like Kerosene and LP refrigerators G.W.N.S however they are only as good as your fuel supplies hold out. A propane one burns around 1# a day and kerosene burns about 1 1/2 gal a week. A solar 12 or 24 volt refrigerator will run off the batteries recharged by the sun. Just another option with comparable pricing.

    I skippered a sailboat back from Hawaii to Santa Cruz, CA. in ’92. The bilge was divided in half fore to aft. The port side was a freezer and the starboard side was a refrigerator. They both ran off of 12 volt deep cycle batteries charged by two 45 watt solar panels hanging from a frame off the stern.

    Caught a lot of fish on the way back; butchered them in the cockpit and froze them for consumption later in the week. Our beer and wine never got cold either. ;-)

    Never had to start the engine to charge the batteries other than to motor when the wind dropped or was on the nose. Those solar panels sure kept up with our demand.

    Freedom Through Self-Reliance
    www.Unchainedpreppers.com/forum

    #15724
    Profile photo of Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Moderator

    …however they are only as good as your fuel supplies hold out.

    …I like the kerosene option as it’s easier to adapt to alternative fuels like waste oils or the many varieties of home brew alcohol.

    It’s all about options. :yes:

    Nothing wrong with solar here in Florida, however some areas are not so good for solar. :-)

    Love sailing, still in my list of backup plans.

    #15730
    Profile photo of Robert
    Robert
    Participant

    We’ve been producing our own power since 1999. We went with a ConServ model fridge. With almost everything except ghost loads off in the house, the amp meter on the Xantrex inverter shows less than an amp in use, so the fridge is pretty damn efficient.

    Had no problem running this for the first 10 years where our total solar was only 1,680 watts. Been over 3KW for the last 5 years now. Gotta get off my butt and get some other mounts built for another 2KW in panels I have in storage.

    www.jrhenterprises.com
    RMP, TC3, NODF, CRCD 6/14, CP 9/14. NODF, Land Nav, 6/15. Rifleman Challenge 9/15- Vanguard. FOFtactics 3/16, 10/16, 11/16, 6/17,11/17 CTT, 6/15, 11/16, , LRMC-1 9/17 GA Mobile CTT and DA 10/16, GA mobile DCH 3/18, HEAT1 3/18 Alum weekend 8/18, Opfor CLC 10/18, DA 11/18 CQBC 12/18

    #15735
    Profile photo of Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Joe (G.W.N.S.)
    Moderator

    Gotta get off my butt and get some other mounts built for another 2KW in panels I have in storage.

    Nice problem to have! :yes:

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