May 12, 2019 at 10:30 pm #67676First SergeantModerator
The reason for the “paper tiger” comment is that China does not have the ability to move large numbers of troops in a short amount of time. They have no way of protecting them with air power if it is away from land based airfields.
They have one working carrier and are working on a second. The problem with the carrier is they have no institutional knowledge on how to conduct carrier operations. They are still trying to learn how to do that. That’s why I said that they could probably make it across to Taiwan. They would still be in range of land based air cover from the mainland.
China right now, like North Korea, is trying to figure out how to deal with their new reality. Since Truman was in office they have been used to getting what they want with basically no push back.
North Korea would have fallen under it’s own weight years ago except we kept sending them grain. Nobody had the balls to say no. Clinton, Bush, Obama are all guilty of that. China is incapable of helping NK with food because they can’t even feed themselves. They are importing rice from us.
Is our military ready for anything like a peer to peer or near peer fight? Fuck no. I don’t think it ever will be. The people in charge don’t know how to get ready for that because they refuse to believe that we could ever loose. That’s the problem, hubris.
If MacArthur would have been listened to, we wouldn’t have this problem.
The cyber stuff is not in doubt. That started with the Clinton’s giving them all kinds of info and backdoors. It hasn’t slowed down since. That is a whole nother ball of wax that is going to take years to try and rectify.
Signal out, can you identify.
Je ne regrette rien...
Klagt Nicht, KämpftMay 13, 2019 at 2:51 am #67682rampantraptorParticipant
In the case of an open conflict, I’m not sure how much less fucked the Chinese markets would be by holding back economically, so they could go for scorched earth tactics, though I can’t claim to be an expert on US and Chinese trade and financial deficits. China is becoming more and more influential in trade worldwide, though, their new Silk Road program is intentionally a means to diversify and expand their markets, because they’d be stupid to do otherwise. Would a war hurt them now? Sure. Fifteen years from now? Who knows.
If you want to know how China is playing, look at Africa. They’re not directly confronting the US, they’re just filling in the vacuums in US interest, building support and dependence on China while the Americans are distracted. It’s not a plan to wage war against America next year, it’s a plan to outmaneuver and render us irrelevant in thirty years. I see a long game in their thinking.
If we fight China in the South China Sea, I don’t see how we win. They’re developing all the necessary technology and infrastructure to resist US incursions and our regional allies (if you can call countries like Vietnam “allies”) lack the physical power and motivation to hold back a Chinese assault and deny them a quick victory before US reinforcements arrive. China is making long-term preparations for an invasion of Taiwan and guess what? Most Taiwanese are already accepting defeat against the mere suggestion of an invasion.
Chinese interference stateside would very much include attacks on the grid, they’ve already claimed they would do as much. I can imagine very successful sabotage and espionage but I can’t see them successfully backing insurgent groups in the same manner as the Russians because they lack the same experience in hybrid warfare. The last attempt of any kind of outright backing of militants of any sort I’m aware of was Norinco offering tanks and rocket launchers to LA gang members that happened to be undercover FBI agents, which is why we can’t get any nice Norinco guns. I can see them spreading chaos through infrastructure attacks but being incapable of directing the chaos that follows to their advantage.
I don’t see Red Dawn happening with Chinese paratroopers, because they don’t have the blue water capability to project that much power across the ocean. What they do have is leverage, including forcing an American film studio to do a shitty job post-production to make Chinese antagonists into North Koreans, which made the remake even more unbelievable.
Just my two cents.
- - -
Jîn, Jiyan, AzadîMay 13, 2019 at 9:06 am #67684HessianParticipant
The US empire is in decline. The west in general has lost its sanity, with out healthy men of sound mind the west is headed for some dark days.
@rampantraptor is correct. The Chinese with their new silk road and the colonizing of Africa is giving them a new means of food production. The Chinese have no qualms with pushing out the natives to run the farms. Typically China always runs into famine issues which in the past has ended every dynasty the have had in the past.
The Chinese are also using birthright citizenship as a means of infiltrating the country. Being on a plane headed to the US and giving birth can give that child US citizenship. Interestingly enough United States v. Wong Kim Ark, 169 U.S. 649 (1898) and the interpretation of that ruling (along with the 14th) leads us the current birth right citizenship of today.
China does not have the capability for an invasion beyond its regional neighbors. With possible attacks on the grid and other systems making life uncomfortable for a majority of the US populace. This could result in handing over territories to the Chinese to have them turn the ‘lights back on’ so that people can continue their soft “happy” lives.May 13, 2019 at 9:43 am #67686
We are still not understanding the threat created by technology in this new age. Thinking about land warfare is really a red herring. It’s not gonna be about how much ammo you need for your belt-fed at the Choisin Reservoir, against human wave Chinese attacks.
People are ignorant because this stuff is not covered in the news. They have an unfailing belief in the current way of things, and cannot see a threat to the US that is credible. I’ll not say this is going to happen tomorrow, but when the stars align for the Chinese / Russians. I can’t really tell you enough how THEY ARE INSIDE THE TECHNOLOGY. They supply most of it, even if they stole it from the west.
In terms of land warfare threats, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that they would employ behind the lines special forces units similar to Spetznaz in order to create that 5th column and the physical infrastructure attacks to the cyber warfare. Also, given that we physically had to introduce the Stuxnet virus into Iranian systems by USB, if that additional level was needed, there are enough Chinese in high places to get that done. Thus possible covert and overt action.
It is imperative to understand that SCADA and similar systems are all networked. Cyber attacks can be weaponized.
Once the systems are down in the US, domestic elements will do the rest of the killing and chaos.
If traced to China, I would not be surprised if the US Government goes nuclear. The simple fact that they would be hoodwinked like that would create rage on top of hubris like never seen.
The US Military is living a hubristic dream that it is the best in the world at everything. Cuz ‘Merica. It’s actually mostly a bag of balls. Yes, great weapons technology. Some great units. All that CQB focus of the SF type units and cool gear and stuff isn’t going to get shit done when MLRS is raining down on your position. It’s all for the GWOT. But that mostly doesn’t matter anyway. And either way, the US military is a huge horrific bureaucracy run with incompetence at all levels, both military and civilian bureaucracy. You think they even have the institutional wit to plan and prepare for this shit? Where does this sudden trust in a government department come from on a Liberty-orientated forum?
Let’s have a bit of humor, as there is often more truth in humor than you would expect. These cynical comedy articles would never be written if there was not a grain of truth:May 13, 2019 at 11:32 am #67688Joe (G.W.N.S.)Moderator
Though much of this makes for interesting conversation and it’s certainly important to understand the threat.
This understanding is important for preparations and spreading the word to the ignorant.
What is of little use is the idea that we can come up with a plan for the Government to implement to prevent this or even mitigate this threat.
I personally lean towards one of the many possible black swan events compromising an existing vulnerability long before one of our many enemies can implement their long term plan to destroy us.
This could provide an opening for one or more of these enemies to exploit that vulnerability we find ourselves in at that point. Consider Max’s books for one of many scenarios.
I encourage everyone to read up on these technologies to understand these threats. If after educating yourself you have specific questions I’ll answer them.
The majority have much homework to do in order to have a legitimate discussion regarding this.
A quick note back to the original post, we didn’t have enough sealift capability during the cold war and its worse now. We don’t have the money or political desire to to build that capability. Finally we do not have the infrastructure to build this capability on short notice such as during WWII.
So ultimately we don’t have the ability to project large-scale heavy ground forces worldwide in short notice, particularly in contested waterways.May 13, 2019 at 5:54 pm #67695RobRoyParticipant
I would not doubt that Russia or China is using the Iranian bait to help bring about the Black Swan or Middle Eastern tar pit for the USA and its empire.
Slow, funny looking, annoying and difficult to handle.May 13, 2019 at 7:24 pm #67698Sitting DuckParticipant
The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger
Book by Marc Levinson.
It’s a good book and puts a little light on the history of shipping. We move more with less faster than ever. The ships are quickly obsolete. Significant amount of history on Vietnam logistics.
It’s definitely different from the days of Liberty ships.
I spent a little time in China as they were beginning to prepare for the Olympics. Something that experience impressed upon me was the cultural change caused by the one birth policy. For every “potential cannon fodder” there are 2 parents and 4 grandparents who have everything invested in THAT kid.
China has very long game view.
I agree that China can control almost everything with a microchip and many things without due to human capital. Although they could easily shut down our electricity and internet on election day and spark a civil war it’s not in their own interests. We’re selling them the whole lot.
Probably some lessons to be learned from the handover of Hong Kong.May 13, 2019 at 8:01 pm #67700
None of us knows what the future will bring and what any potential collapse will look like. I wrote about that in my blog post on the collapse.
What we can know is capability. I hope I have made it plain that China has the capability to take the US down via cyber attack.
What we need to assess is intent. Intent tied in with any current plan or future intent that would provide advantage to China in taking the US down.
That is what needs to be assessed.
The frantic efforts by China and Russia to subvert the petrodollar are one indication. Note how the US goes to war with countries who subvert the petrodollar. Like the unlawful invasion of Syria to overthrow Assad, who is the lawful president of a sovereign country, and in my opinion has not used chemical weapons against his population.
Worrying about sea lift on either side is not really the point. It is not needed to bring about the demise of the US. Such a situation could result in use of nuclear weapons by the US on China. Would they really give a shit? Just to conjecture for a minute, what is interesting about that is that if China did desire to invade at any point, perhaps after the US has eaten itself once the grid goes down, that is a vulnerable point. For example, what if lacking sea lift they came across the Bering Strait in slow time? All it needs is a surviving nuclear launch site with sensor and command capability to take that out with a tactical nuclear strike.
Same deal if they decided to round up a bunch of container ships and make a landing on the west coast unopposed, long time post collapse. Is or is not there still a nuke capability that can react to that and hit Los Angeles or Portland with a tactical nuclear strike?
So anyway, we can surmise all we want. What we do know is capability. We need to assess intent both now and in the future. That includes opportunistic attacks if circumstances reach a point where the trade relationship is no longer beneficial.
We can talk current economic systems and debt and all that. Yes, the US can default. China can default. Reset the world economy. New world order. If the US is kicked off the petrodollar, we would fall like a house of cards.
Who wants to do the Intel assessment?May 14, 2019 at 9:20 am #67706
It is what is not said in these public documents that is scary:
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.